Botafogo

Atlético-MG's team news is the story: they are expected to rotate heavily, with regular starters reported to have stayed in Belo Horizonte, so a weakened side travels to face Botafogo at home. Botafogo do have absentees — Jordan Barrera, Arthur Chaves and Kaio Pantaleão are out and Danilo's thigh problem should rule him out — but Tiquinho Soares returns to lead the line and Montoro is back from suspension.

The honest risk is that eight Botafogo players sit one booking from a ban, which can breed caution, and their own injury list is not short. Even so, a settled home side against a rotated opponent is the clearest edge on this sheet. The bet: Botafogo to win.