Detroit Pistons +3.5 (spread)

Detroit come in on three straight wins with the best defensive rating in the league, conceding just 100.3 points a night, and they have already beaten Philadelphia 106-93 this season. That is the profile I want behind the night bet: an elite defence, at home, against a side they have already handled comfortably.

The complication is the team sheet. Detroit are without Duren and Joe, while Philadelphia have Embiid available and only Barlow missing. That is the one honest risk: Duren's absence in the middle hands Embiid a far softer matchup than he faced in that first meeting, and it is the main reason this is not a shorter price. Even so, Philadelphia managed only 93 points against this defence in October, and nothing on their sheet suggests a dramatic turnaround.

With the cushion of the start, Detroit need only keep this competitive in their own building, something their defensive form says they will. The bet: Detroit Pistons +3.5.