Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)

The treatment room is where I find the edge here. Vasco da Gama travel without four players: Cauan Barros (leg), C. Cuesta (hip), A. Gomez and Mateus Carvalho (knee), stripping them at both ends of the pitch. Athletico Paranaense are missing only Claudinho and C. Teran, and their predicted side still carries Stiven Mendoza, Luiz Gustavo and Kevin Viveros at home.

The honest risk is that the sheet gives me no recent form for either club, so this rests on home advantage and a two-to-one absentee count rather than momentum. The draw is covered by the refund. The bet: Athletico Paranaense (draw no bet).