Cyprus or draw

Cyprus double chance, platform reasoning:

Montenegro arrive as favourites on paper, but the context favours the hosts more than the table suggests. Montenegro have already done their work in this group and travel with little left to play for, while Cyprus are fighting for pride at home in the final matchday. Motivation matters in these fixtures, and it sits with the home side.

Cyprus have been far more competitive at home than their results column shows. Their home games in this campaign were all decided by a single goal or ended level, and they have made life uncomfortable for every visitor. Montenegro's away form is the weak part of their profile, and they needed a single goal to edge the reverse fixture despite dominating the ball.

With the pressure off the visitors and Cyprus playing their last home game of the campaign in front of their own crowd, the double chance covers the two most likely outcomes.

Cyprus double chance is the bet.