Under 3.5 goals

Ghana have lost both qualifiers and conceded six, but the opposition here is a different class entirely: Somalia sit 200th in the FIFA rankings to Ghana's 70th, arrive with one goal scored across their two defeats, and visit Accra with Ghana desperate for a first win of the campaign. That desperation should produce pressure, but not necessarily a shoot-out.

The honest risk is Ghana's own defensive record — six conceded in two means a high-scoring game is possible if they are that open again. But Somalia have offered next to nothing going forward and Ghana have scored only twice themselves, so a routine two or three-goal home win covers most realistic scorelines. The bet: under 3.5 goals.