Boston Celtics −1.5 (spread)

Boston are the strongest side on tonight's slate and this is the cleanest game to read. No names on the injury report for either club, no rotation doubts, just a straightforward talent gap. My numbers make the Celtics roughly a 72 per cent proposition to win in Toronto, with the true handicap closer to seven points than the bucket and a half the market is asking.

The honest risk is the setting: an early-season road trip and the possibility of a flat shooting night keeping it tight into the fourth quarter. But this is not one of those double-digit spreads that turn into coin flips. Boston only need to win by two, and a superior half-court offence against a young Raptors group should tell over 48 minutes.

In a week where I am protecting the record, this is the steady side of the board: a clear favourite, a small number, no injury noise on either bench. The bet: Boston Celtics -1.5.