Napoli over 1.5 goals

Napoli's absentee list runs to nine — Buongiorno, Badiashile, Spinazzola, Di Lorenzo, Lobotka and Neres among them — but the attacking spine survives: Anguissa, McTominay, De Bruyne and Gilmour behind Højlund. Lazio arrive without Zaccagni and Guðmundsson, their main wide threats, leaving Pinamonti and Noslin up front behind a patched defence with Nuno Tavares doubtful.

The risk is a stripped bench turning this into a controlled 1-0 rather than a game Napoli chase, with Lobotka's absence costing rhythm. At home against this makeshift Lazio back line, though, two home goals looks the natural shape of it. The bet: Napoli over 1.5 goals.