Atalanta or draw

Fiorentina vs Atalanta, and I know what you're thinking. Atalanta away, missing half their squad, why am I not just taking Fiorentina at home? Because this is exactly the kind of game where the obvious read is wrong.

Yes, Atalanta's injury list is ugly. Scalvini, Kolasinac, Scamacca, Raspadori, all out. But look at Fiorentina's own list before you get excited about the home side. Pongracic out, Parisi out, Atta out, Ranieri a doubt. Both teams walk into this one patched up, and when that's the case, I'm backing the side with more squad depth and more quality in the players who are still standing. That's Atalanta, and it's not particularly close.

The other thing people forget about Atalanta is that their whole system is built to survive rotation. They've spent years rotating heavily through European weeks and still turning up in Serie A. Fiorentina at home will have their moments, they always do at the Franchi, but they don't have the firepower right now to put this game to bed even against a weakened Atalanta back line.

So I'm not touching the home win. My play is Atalanta double chance. I expect a tight game, something like 1-1 or a sneaky 1-2, and the double chance covers both. The outright away win is tempting at the price but with that many defenders out I'm not getting greedy. Atalanta or draw is the bet.