Indiana Pacers +1.5 (spread)

Indiana's injury report makes grim reading: Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, Ivica Zubac, Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are all out, stripping the Pacers of both point guards and their centre. The tell is that the market knows every one of those names and still makes Indiana firm favourites at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Brooklyn's six absentees are mostly G League designations — Bilodeau, Jefferson, Nelson and Saraf — so a virtually full-strength Nets side has still gone 0-5.

The one honest risk is Indiana's attack. With Haliburton and McConnell missing, the creation burden falls heavily on Nembhard, and a disjointed offence could let a desperate Brooklyn side hang around and nick it late. That is precisely why I am taking the point and a half rather than the moneyline: this only loses if a winless road team beats the Pacers by two or more, and nothing in the formbook or the matchup says that is the likely script.

The bet: Indiana Pacers +1.5.