Phoenix Suns −2.5 (spread)

Everything about this matchup leans one way. Charlotte arrive in Phoenix without Brandon Miller (hip), Kon Knueppel (hamstring) and Mark Williams (shoulder surgery), with Moussa Diabaté and Grant Williams only probable. That is three regulars out and two more short of full fitness, stripping away much of the scoring and size around LaMelo Ball. My numbers make Phoenix nearer a six or seven point favourite, so laying under one basket at home is well within their range.

The honest risk is the Suns' defence, 22nd in the schedule-adjusted ratings, even if that is partly inflated by two meetings with Portland; it is not a unit that strangles anyone. Ball is fit and exactly the type to keep a depleted side attached deep into the fourth quarter. Even so, Charlotte's supporting cast is gutted, and asking a wounded road roster to stay within a possession for 48 minutes is a tall order.

The bet: Phoenix Suns -2.5.