Arsenal (draw no bet)

The standout match of the day, and I read it as Arsenal's game. They travel to Anfield looking the more complete and controlled side, and the likeliest outcomes shape up as a narrow Arsenal win or a low-scoring draw, with a Liverpool home victory the least plausible of the three. That makes the away side the value, particularly with insurance attached.

The honest risk is that Anfield does what Anfield does on a big Sunday and Liverpool rise to it, or that the game ends level. The draw is the genuine danger, which is exactly why I am taking the safety net rather than the straight win. The bet: Arsenal, draw no bet.