Houston Rockets +1 (spread)

Houston are 7-3 and at home, Denver are 5-3 and travelling, and the visitors carry the night's key doubt: Christian Braun is questionable with a left-calf contusion and illness. A starter missing, or dressing at less than full fitness, thins a rotation that already faces the stronger side on the season's evidence.

The honest risk is the margin rather than the winner. Denver have enough about them to turn this into a fourth-quarter contest, and if the upset comes it will almost certainly arrive by two points or more, which is the one way this ticket loses; only a defeat by a single point is refunded. Braun being upgraded before tip-off would strengthen the away hand, so his status is worth a late check.

On form, home court and the injury sheet, though, the straight question has a steady answer, and I would rather take the result with a cushion than lay a big number this early in the season. The bet: Houston Rockets +1.