Mirassol (draw no bet)

The clearest edge on tonight's card is in Brazil. Chapecoense host Mirassol without Heitor, Robert Conceicao and Vinicius Balieiro, while Mauricio Garcez and Rafael Carvalheira are both doubtful — a home side short in several areas. My read of this match makes Mirassol the clear favourite: around a 55-60% chance of the win, with Chapecoense nearer one in five.

The honest caveat is that Mirassol travel with problems of their own: Bruno Santos and Edson Carioca are suspended, Negueba is out and Jose Aldo is doubtful. This is an away favourite missing a chunk of depth, not a full-strength side, and that is exactly why I am not playing the straight away win on the road.

After two defeats on the bounce on the night bet page, I want the safer vehicle on the same opinion. If Mirassol's superiority shows, the bet lands; if the absentees drag them down to a draw, the stake comes back. The bet: Mirassol draw no bet.