Villarreal +2 (handicap)

Real Madrid's most dangerous weapon is a question mark — Mbappé's knee has him doubtful, and the back line's already patched up. Villarreal aren't the type to roll over for the crest; they sit compact, frustrate, and hit on the counter. A narrow Real win or even a share of the points is the far likelier script than the market's blowout price. Back Villarreal +2 and you're covered on everything but a Real romp.