Memphis Grizzlies (moneyline)

Memphis travel to New Orleans as the strongest clean side on the board. I make the Grizzlies a touch under 60% to win outright, and the handicap sits at a single possession either way: the market sees these teams as close to level yet still leans towards the visitors. Every other favourite tonight is priced only on inflated double-digit handicaps, so this is the clean way to back the better side.

The rest of the slate argues for caution. Indiana are without Haliburton, Furphy and Sheppard, with Nesmith questionable; Orlando are missing Banchero and Isaac among a lengthy absentee list. Those games run on guesswork around depleted rotations, and November basketball turns double-figure spreads into a lottery.

The honest risk is that this is a one-possession game on paper in a road building, and with no firm team-news sheet here the numbers are doing the talking. A win probability near 60% remains the firmest ground tonight. The bet: Memphis Grizzlies moneyline.