Toronto Raptors −3.5 (spread)

Toronto have already beaten Orlando by 30 points this season, and they still carry enough firepower to dominate this matchup even without Kawhi Leonard. Playing at home against a side they dismantled recently, being asked to win by four or more rather than the five or six the projections suggest looks a beatable number.

The honest risk is that one earlier blowout is a small sample, Leonard's absence lowers their ceiling on an off shooting night, and early-season NBA is volatile. The matchup evidence, though, points firmly one way. The bet: Toronto Raptors −3.5.