Oklahoma City Thunder (moneyline)

Portland's injury list is the whole handicap. Ja Morant is out with a hamstring strain, Shaedon Sharpe following meniscus surgery and Vit Krejci with an ankle fracture: the Trail Blazers' lead ball-handler, their most explosive young scorer and a rotation wing, all missing on one night. Oklahoma City lose Chet Holmgren to a knee injury, but Isaiah Hartenstein is a genuine starting centre rather than a patch, and the Thunder's backcourt and defensive structure stay intact.

The market prices Oklahoma City as only a narrow road favourite, and my numbers have them nearer a 60 per cent side than a coin flip, because Portland lack the creation left to punish a set defence across 48 minutes. The honest risk is the setting: a late tip, a proud home crowd, and without Holmgren the Thunder's rim protection thins, so this profiles as competitive into the fourth quarter rather than a runaway.

On a slate where the strongest sides are offered only at swollen handicaps, the short price on the healthier, deeper roster is the steady play. The bet: Oklahoma City Thunder moneyline.