Velez Sarsfield or draw

Vélez arrive as the stronger side on the facts: sixth in the table with 28 points from 15 matches, while Unión sit 15th with 21 from 16. Neither camp reports fresh selection problems — the only name on the injury list is Lautaro Vargas, out with a cruciate ligament problem and no return date — so the quality gap in the standings is what I lean on here.

The honest risk is that the market prices this almost level, respecting Unión's home advantage, and away wins are never routine in Argentina. Taking the draw as cover steadies it. The bet: Vélez Sarsfield or draw.