Philadelphia 76ers −3 (spread)

Indiana's injury list is where this game is decided. Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are both out, and Andrew Nembhard is questionable with a neck problem, so the Pacers could be down their three primary ball-handlers against a Philadelphia side missing only deep bench pieces in Tacko Fall, Jabari Walker, Dominick Barlow and Ariel Hukporti. The 76ers sit 3-1 and won their last game without Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, both of whom are expected back tonight.

Context favours the visitors too. Indiana is 2-2 and without a competent creator the offence will lean on half-court sets that Philadelphia's size can smother. The honest risk is that Embiid's return is expected rather than confirmed, and a late scratch would narrow the gap considerably; a healthy Nembhard would also give Indiana some steel at the point of attack.

At a three-point line I think the real gap is wider than the market suggests, so the handicap is the vehicle rather than a short moneyline. The bet: Philadelphia 76ers -3.