Aston Villa −1.5 (handicap)

Villa -1.5 against Viking is the clearest mismatch on the whole CL card. Viking have scraped their way to this stage, but they're a level below what Villa bring, and at Villa Park the gap shows up on the scoreboard.

Villa will dominate the ball and create chance after chance — the only question is whether they put enough of them away to clear the two-goal line. Against a side that has to travel and sit deep from the first whistle, the script is Villa by a couple. That's exactly what -1.5 asks.

The straight win is already short, so you're not getting paid for the risk of just one goal either way. The handicap is where the actual value lives. The only worry is if Villa rotate with one eye on the league and it turns into a one-goal grind — but you back the gulf in quality here, not the rotation risk.