Over 2.5 goals

Toulouse are a Ligue 1 side that actually play football — they commit numbers forward and, more importantly, they leak at the back. When they step down a level to face a team like Le Mans in a cup tie, the pattern is almost always the same: they dominate the ball, they push the game, but they don't keep it tight. Le Mans aren't going to just sit there either — they're at home, they'll have a go, and they're exactly the kind of side Toulouse gives chances to.

You get two things going on here. A clear favourite who's poor at defending transitions, and an underdog who has nothing to lose and will attack the spaces. That's the recipe for a game that opens up. Cup football does that to teams — the lower side chases, the bigger side gets sloppy with the lead, and suddenly it's end-to-end.

The goals don't need to be pretty. Toulouse have the firepower to put this away themselves, and if Le Mans nick one early it only forces the game wider. Over 2.5 is the bet that wins when the game plays out like both teams want it to.

Only thing that could kill it is an early Toulouse spell and then them sitting on it — but that's not really their way. They keep attacking. That's what we're backing.